您的当前位置:首页 > 宏观研究 > Arthur Hayes explains the impact of interest rate cuts: the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is key, and the market may plummet after the interest rate cut 正文
时间:2025-06-06 23:35:19 来源:网络整理 编辑:宏观研究
ArthurHayes,ChiefInvestmentOfficerofMaelstromandco-founderofBitMEX,statedattheToken2049conferenceinS
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.
Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading
The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.
Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.
Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.
Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.
The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero
Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.
Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.
东安动力(600178.SH):目前无飞行汽车业务相关收入2025-06-06 23:50
OKX|欧亿安卓安装包下载全官网——探索OKX交易所安卓手机应用的全新体验2025-06-06 23:47
科华数据:智算业务积极推进,数据中心业务收入占比提升,机柜上架率为74%2025-06-06 23:35
万币网国际交易平台2025-06-06 22:10
怎么下比特儿 怎么下载比特儿app2025-06-06 22:09
管理费用结转到哪个科目2025-06-06 21:57
10月31日鹏华安颐混合A净值增长0.34%,近6个月累计上涨4.52%2025-06-06 21:53
10月31日国联高质量成长混合A净值增长0.43%,近3个月累计上涨5.24%2025-06-06 21:50
税率和征收率有什么区别2025-06-06 21:47
btcwallet钱包2025-06-06 21:25
融e借股票2025-06-06 23:55
火币和币下2025-06-06 23:31
okex价格指数2025-06-06 23:18
10月31日嘉实对冲套利定期混合C净值下跌0.36%,今年来累计下跌6.34%2025-06-06 22:56
股票式质押-股票式质押式回购2025-06-06 22:41
10月31日博时健康成长双周定期可赎回混合A净值下跌0.44%,今年来累计下跌9.91%2025-06-06 22:33
递延所得税资产适用的税率是多少2025-06-06 22:14
10月31日长城研究精选混合C净值增长0.28%,近3个月累计上涨13.35%2025-06-06 22:05
捷信可以申请现金贷吗?具体怎么做。2025-06-06 21:59
10月31日汇添富医疗积极成长一年持有混合A净值下跌0.94%,今年来累计下跌17.48%2025-06-06 21:45